Economic-mathematical model of the assessment of strategic risk

Аuthors

Borodin A. I.^1*, Streltsova E. D.^2**, Kovalyova A. V.^3***

1. Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russia
2. FGBOUS computers «Southern Russian state technical university (NPI)» ,
3. JSC Aeroflot-Russian Airlines,

*e-mail: aib-2004@yandex.ru
**e-mail: el_strel@mail.ru
***e-mail: akovaleva@aeroflot.ru

Abstract

In article the complex of the economic-mathematical models, allowing to estimate size of strategic risks is constructed at a choice of strategy of development of the industrial enterprise on the basis of imitation of processes of change of the current profits and losses of the industrial enterprise in the conditions of the uncertainty, including models of an assessment of laws of distributions of profits and losses, both at existence, and in the absence of retrospective statistical data. On the basis of the created economic-mathematical models the software product of STRATEG is developed for decision-making process support at a choice of strategy of development of the enterprise taking into account strategic risks.

Keywords:

strategic risk, intra firm planning, industrial enterprise, factor of risk, strategy