A method for aircraft critical characteristics determining based on risk-analysis and project data verification

Аuthors

Konopleva V. M.^*, Skvortsov E. B.^**

Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute named after N.E. Zhukovsky (TsAGI), 1, Zhukovsky str., Zhukovsky, Moscow Region, 140180, Russia

*e-mail: viktoriya.konopleva@tsagi.ru
**e-mail: skvortsov-tsagi@yandex.ru

Abstract

The article reflects the method for critical characteristics determining of the aircraft allowing accounting for the uncertainty presence of a variety of parameters during design procedure while performing analysis and quantitative assessment of technical risk.

The purpose of this method application consists efficiency enhancing in the field of aircraft development. The said method is necessary for the current state of development monitoring, and helps while decision making among variety of different implementation options. In view of the initial design stage specifics methods employed for the aircraft characteristics computing are approximate. Computation of one and the same characteristic by different methods with various assumptions is quite possible, which causes a certain range of possible values. The presented method allows reducing the searched for characteristic uncertainty up to the numerical indicator.

The proposed indicator is the probability of fulfilling one or another item from technical requirements (TR) for the aircraft, and its computing requires the following action sequence:

– an uncertainty model forming, particularly, for a probabilistic model, selecting parameters distribution law and setting intervals of possible values;

– simulation modeling, allowing obtaining a range of possible values for the requirement being analyzed;

– analysis of the simulation modeling results, where the probability of a given TR item fulfilling and basic statistical characteristics are being computed, conclusions are drawn on the stability of the expected value;

– sensitivity analysis, which allows expanding the analyzed requirement understanding, transferring to decomposition by parameters and the critical uncertainty tracking of one or another parameter.

The method was considered on the example of the regional aircraft development. Beta distribution, specified by two parameters of shape and a range of possible values, is employed to form the input data uncertainty model. Simulation modeling was performed with the MATLAB & Simulink package. The integral indicator is the probability of fulfilling the TR in terms of flight range.

The article demonstrates that when flying at a fixed cruising speed, with 5th generation engines, the metric value is 84%. The histogram of the distribution belongs to the type of positively skewed distribution with a shift of the mean value from the center of the range, closer to the left border of the probabilistic values, which characterizes it as unstable. Sensitivity analysis confirmed this assumption, detecting that the interval of probability values for the aircraft empty weight is such that the risk of not meeting the requirement for flight range in some cases could reach 100%. Based on the performed computations, an inference of necessity for extra studies in the field of aircraft strength and structural design was drawn.

Keywords:

risk-analysis, verification, conceptual design, critical characteristics, key technologies

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