Aeronautical and Space-Rocket Engineering
Rocket and space engineering
Аuthors
1*, **, 2***1. Federal State Institution “Federal Scientific Center Scientific Research Institute for System Analysis of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, Nachimovskiy prosp., Moscow, 117218, Russia
2. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia
*e-mail: usovikiv@gmail.com
**e-mail: darnopykh@mail.ru
***e-mail: veniaminmalyshev@mail.ru
Abstract
Space debris (SD) creates more and more problems for the spacecraft operating in low earth orbits (LEO). At present experts worldwide come to the conclusion that there the need to «clean up» near-Earth space environment from space debris becomes urgent. However, now there is no adequate substantiation of active SD removal effectiveness impact on techmogenic pollution evolution. Thus, the efforts concerning the evaluation of active removal of large SD objects effectiveness impact on long-term technogenic pollution of LEO region are carried out within the framework of Inter-Agency Coordination Committee on Space Debris activities. The paper presents the results of the developed methodology as a part of these activities
The major element of the methodology is a statistical model of SD developed by A. I. Nazarenko. We suggest to describe the whole set of objects X as a set of objects described by three subsets: D — debris, ADR — the objects that can be subjected to the operation of the active removal, NEW — new launched objects with respect to which we consider technogenic pollution limitation measures. To solve the problems of mutual collisions and impacts of the collisions we shall describe the set X using a statistic SD model and multitudes specified in it. The subsets ADR and NEW will be described additionally using complete information on every object with a single-piece description. Prediction of orbital evolution of objects from the subset D will be carried out using methodologies of statistical model SD, the subsets ADR and NEW with prediction of the orbital parameters of each object. Accounting of active removal and SD limiting measures occurs while deleting objects from the subsets ADR and NEW, and as a consequence from the total set X.
Analysis of the results of implementation of the developed methodology showed that for technogenic pollution of LEO region reduction in the longer term at least 5 large objects a year should be removed. However, the impact of the effectiveness of the SD active removal on long-term evolution of SD would be estimated in the decades to come. The obtained results agree well with those of other researchers.
We identified the areas in which it is necessary to carry out the operation of the SD active removal in the first place:
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h = 800 ÷ 850 km, i = 71,25°;
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h = 650 ÷ 800 km, i = 98,75°;
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h = 900 ÷ 950 km, i = 83,75°.
Keywords:
space debris, modeling, prediction of space debris, mutual collisions, active debris removalReferences
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