Defining tнe demand for passenger airplanes in conditions of market saturation ву foreign-made aircraft

Economics


Аuthors

Manvelidze A. B.

Moscow State University of Technology "STANKIN", 1, Vadkovsky lane, Moscow, 127994, Russia

e-mail: a.b.manvelidze@gmail.com

Abstract

The problem of Russian air companies' transition from employing foreign-made passenger aircraft to domestic ones is under consideration. The article analyzes the status of passenger aircraft being under operation or being ordered for the future. It also defines the aircraft ownership i.e. financial leasing, or operational leasing or airline's property. Мost attention is payed to the study of an aircraft operational leasing, since regulation of aircraft park being in temporary service will allow release market niches for domestic built aircraft.

The article presents a methodical approach, allowing assess variants of freight capacities volume formation based on statistics monitoring to implement new airplanes of domestic manufacturing.

Analysis of the rules of statistical accounting applied by US airlines led to the idea of the above saic proposed methodology. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) of the USA publishes monthly the detailed airlines reports on distribution of aircraft types by airlines, reflecting distance factors, the number of planned and actually performed flights, passenger traffic, cargo and mail, available seat-miles, passenger-miles, ton-miles, flight hours and aviation fuel consumption. Based on the detailed data, brief reports on aircraft employing are being compiled and can be sent to aviation organizations, such as ICAO. The detailed presentation of information allows perform studies on modernization of aircraft fleet under operation adequately and without extra resources.

The air transport of Russian Federation publishes brief statistical forms on aircraft availability and usage (32 civil aviation and 33 civil aviation). To obtain detailed data on performed air service by airplanes of airlines the data on full schedules (SRS Analyser) and passenger transportation along the routes are being integrated.

The calculations simulating the workout resources of an aircraft in use are performed using the network modelled in such a way. In the longer run, the demand for airlifts rises, the aircraft in service drops out, and a niche of free seat-volumes for new aircraft implementation appears.

The source of information is the Transport Clearing House statistical database on aircraft fleet at disposal and employing this fleet by airlines and industry at large, transportation between pairs of cities, as well as international databases. The Flight Global database is used to analyze the state of passenger airplanes' park. It gives a comprehensive idea of air transporters' airplanes under operation and aircraft building industry perspectives. The airplane schedule and freight capacity were accepted according to SRS Analyser database. In calculation for perspective, the United Aircraft Corporation plans on aircraft building up to 2037 were accounted for. The market niche formation of new aircraft implementation is affected mainly by the demand on passenger aircraft seats as a whole and by segments; terms of passenger airplane disposal; signed contracts of airlines on the delivery of foreign-made aircraft; delivery plans of domestic manufactured aircraft.

Keywords:

seating capacity, available seat-kilometers, aircraft monitoring, aircraft leasing, aircraft disposal, United Aircraft Corporation deliveries, segments, narrow-bodied aircraft, regional jets, turboprop aircraft, aircraft replacement

References


  1. Мanvelidze A.B. Vestnik Moskovskogo aviatsionnogo instituta, 2017, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 226-234.

  2. Conway R.W., Мaxwell W.L., Мiller L.W. Theory of Scheduling. Addison-Wesley, New York, 1967, 1214 p.

  3.  Samoilov I.A., Stradomskii O.Yu., Shapkin V.S. Nauchnyi vestnik Moskovskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta grazhdanskoi aviatsii, 2013, no. 187, pp. 7-18.

  4. Okulov V.М. Obzor parka vozdushnykh sudov v GA RF, 2017, available at: https://www.aex.ru/docs/2/2017/3/10/2575/

  5. Rob Мorris. INSIGHT FROM FLIGHTGLOBAL: Commercial operating leasing market dynamics, 2017, available at: https://www.flightglobal.com/asset/16524

  6. Gosudarstvennaya programma Rossiiskoi Federatsii “Razvitie aviatsionnoi promyshlennosti na 2013-2025 gody” (State program of the Russian Federation “Development of aircraft industry for 2013-2025”), available at: http://base.garant.ru/70644068/#block_10000

  7. ICAO Data/Traffic by Flight Stage (TFS), available at: https://www4.icao.int/NewDataPlus

  8. Ascend Fleets/View aircraft on order, in service and deliveries to understand how the shape of the world fleet is changing and what new aircraft are coming into the market, available at: http://ascend.flightglobal.com//Home/FireBirdSearch.aspx?N=0&sUrl=0

  9. SRS analyser /Part of Flight Global/ SRS, available at: https://srsanalyser.diio.net/srs/topframe.jsp

  10. Airbus. Global Market Forecast 2017-2036, available at: http://www.aircraft.airbus.com/market/global-market-forecast-2017-2036/

  11. Boeing. Current Market Outlook 2017-2036, available at: http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/current-market-outlook-2017/

  12. Bombardier. Aircraft Market Forecast 2017-2036, available at: news.commercialaircraft.bombardier.com

  13. Statistika dlya aviakompanii — uchastnikov SVVT / Transportno-kliringovaya palata, 2016, available at: https://www.tch.ru/ru-ru/Stc-and-statistics/Statistics/Pages/Statistics-for-airlines.aspx

  14. Andreev V.N., Eleneva Yu.Ya., Prosvirina М.E. Rossiiskoe predprinimatel’stvo, 2010, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 144-149.

  15. Eleneva Yu.Ya., Oleinik A.V., Andreev V.N. Vestnik MGTU Stankin, 2013, no. 4(27), pp. 127-131.

  16. Andreev V.N. Vestnik MGTU Stankin, 2014, no. 4(31), pp. 214-219.

  17. Eleneva Yu.Ya., Andreev V.N. Vestnik MGTU Stankin, 2016, no. 1(36), pp. 81-85.

  18. Andreev V.N., Кononchuk T.V. Vestnik MGTU Stankin, 2015, no. 2(33), pp. 130-135.

  19. Eleneva Yu.Ya., Spiridonov O.V., Andreev V.N., Мanvelidze A.B. Vestnik MGTU Stankin, 2016, no. 2(37), pp. 111-116.

  20. Eleneva Yu.Ya., Prosvirina М.E., Elenev К.S., Andreev V.N. Innovatsii, 2016, no. 8(214), pp. 41-47.

  21. Кomov A.A. Vestnik Moskovskogo aviatsionnogo instituta, 2017, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 7-12.

  22. Gyazova М.М. Vestnik Moskovskogo aviatsionnogo instituta, 2017, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 241-248.


mai.ru — informational site of MAI

Copyright © 1994-2024 by MAI