Export potential of an aircraft building enterprise: development trends and predictive modeling (on the example of Progress Arsenyev Aviation Company)


Kozlov A. E.

Aviation Company Progress named after N.I. Sazykin, 5, sq. Lenin, Arseniev, Primorsky Region, 692330, Russia

e-mail: tg1801@mail.ru


Enterprises are constantly facing competition, both at domestic and foreign market. The competition promotes the development of export, but the risks associated with an unsatisfactory estimation of activity of an enterprise and improper planning may inflict damage to the company.

To consider the issue of products export one can employ the following method of export potential assessment to promote products and services at foreign markets:

  1. Assess the popularity of manufactured products or services at the domestic market. If they are successfully sold in the local market, they will be probably in demand abroad, at least at the markets of the countries with similar socio-economic conditions and needs;

  2. Evaluate the unique or most important features of the produced goods and services. If they are hard to be reproduced abroad, there is a possibility the company will enjoy the success, as unique goods do not face the severe competition and the demand for them is high.

Since the Holding Company “Helicopters of Russia” occupies the leading positions in military-industrial complex development, the article is devoted to the study of export potential of one of its enterprises, namely, Arseniev aircraft company “Progress”, which, plans to export military equipment in 2017.

To avoid the above said risks, the company was proposed to employ the model developed by the author for export potential predicting, based of complex evaluation of enterprises. The model is based on evaluation of the basic technical and economic, accounting and financial indicators, as well as indicators of the enterprise's management and its scientific and technical potential. It includes also statistics of qualitative and quantitative structure of personnel, gender and age structure, work experience of engineering personnel, managers, fellow laborers, workers, as well as information on the research work and capabilities of research projects performing.

Summarizing the results on the above listed factors, a model of the multiple regression describing the dependence of the export potential of human resources was built, which was subsequently automated with a software application.

As the result, the program was:

– effective, since the payback period was 45 days at a low annual economic effect;

– universal, since applying this tool is possible for other enterprises (not only the aircraft industry);

– easy-to-use, since the users need only necessary information on the enterprise dynamics, and, according to the theory of mathematical modeling and regression analysis, the more data will be used, the higher the model adequacy and forecast accuracy will be.


integral export potential coefficient, reliability of products, IPI-technologies, program module, workers efficiency


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