Prediction algorithm for aviation products and space-rocket technics reliability at the design stage

Аuthors

Biruykov V. I.^*, Pronin O. Y.^1**, Radshenko A. V.²

1. Scientifically-proving ground aviation systems, Beloozersky, Moscow region, 140250, Russia
2. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia

*e-mail: aviatex@mail.ru
**e-mail: gknipas@transcom.ru

Abstract

Prototype models reliability of space-rocket products and aviation technics is characterized by probability of non-failure operation which is defined by the product of non-failure operation probabilities of all product components. The work purpose is the representation of some techniques for calculation of reliability indicators of elements and systems as available data on intensity refusals or with their absence.
The high value of non-failure operation probability for certain service life is established in the development requirements specification for such products. For example, Р = 0,995 at confidential probability 0,8. The probability of sample non-failure operation should be proved by calculations and results of land tests. The actions providing reliability of elements with raised criticality should be developed. Predicted reliability of a product includes the probability estimations of non-failure operation of elements and systems during the operation modes with certain loading including mechanical (static, dynamic i.e. charges vibration with different frequencies, blow and another), electrical, thermal, radiating and other influences. In addition it is necessary to define reliability of elements and product systems in storage modes. Storage modes consider action of some various factors in both terrestrial and flight conditions.
Elements of space-rocket technics in the majority are non-recoverable. One of requirements to the prototype models is application of typical and standardized knots and completing elements. Dimensional and mass characteristics restrictions or the best functional indicators force to use the foreign element base in certain cases.
Approaches for definition of non-failure operation probability of some elements and systems are based on a design procedure for elements with known parameters of reliability. For example, purchased accessories contain data on failure rate either from elements passports, or THAT, or reliability directories. Definition of non-failure operation probability P is carried out with reference to exponential distribution law for great amount of non-recoverable elements of radio-electronic equipment. For the elements which do not have the official data on reliability definition of non-failure operation probability is carried out with the help of quantile — the representative parameter depending on a firmness stock of critical factor for the given element and also on possible variation of strength and other loading characteristics.
The elements with knots produced by the developer of a prototype model, for example by МАI, are related to this type of elements.
Calculation of some elements reliability can be performed by the third technique based on analogy to the elements, which have known parameters of reliability. The transformers in chains of the electrical discharge initiation, produced by МАI, can be related to these elements, like an ablaze pulse plasma propulsion (АPPP) given as example in this article.
The standard variant of serially made transformers which reliability parameters are given in directories can be accepted for transformers as analogue. However they are different from ignition system transformers because they are not calculated for high-voltage impulsive loading. Therefore the parameter of reliability P for such transformers is defined with the help of both analogue according to the directories data and quantile by reference to the settlement stock of electric isolation firmness.
The calculated value of non-failure operation probability is compared with the value given in product development requirements specification. In the further the elements making the greatest impact on reliability decrease are got out. The specified elements can be related to a category of critical ones. It is possible to improve the reliability parameters of elements having low values due to elements reservation and components duplication. Those elements which have no sufficient reliability data and elements which function as a part of engine in the modes different from passport should be marked as critical elements also. The chosen critical elements should pass through necessary volume of experimental lifelength.
Created as a result of skilled design works the demanded high work reliability of aviation and space-rocket technics products can be provided by calculations of non-failure operation probability of all components and products, by analysis of critical elements and carrying out of actions for reliability increase at all stages of life cycle: designing, manufacturing and experimental operational development of prototype models.

Keywords:

probability of non-failure operation, failure rate, the electric product radio foreign manufacture, spacecraft

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