Status analysis and forecast of operated aircraft writing-off

Economics


Аuthors

Manvelidze A. B.

Moscow State University of Technology "STANKIN", 1, Vadkovsky lane, Moscow, 127994, Russia

e-mail: a.b.manvelidze@gmail.com

Abstract

Monitoring of the current state of the aircraft fleet is an essential component of the management process of the aircraft fleet renewal by introduction of new types of aircraft with improved technical and economic characteristics.

The branch (Federal Air Transport Agency -Rosaviatsya) does not supervise (keeps record) on such deals as purchase and leasing of foreign made aircraft operated in Russian Federation. We mean the monitoring with respect to concrete transaction number, the date of leasing commencement and its expiration.

In this connection, the problem of such aircraft retirement from the Russian air transportation market is difficultly formalizable. This analysis was based on publicly available databases Flightglobal (http:// dashboard.flightglobal.com/app/fleet/#/analyser/fleet), contract data and published reports on big deals of the companies.

For the purposes of the analysis the operated aircraft was separated into several groups according to ownership types and aircraft age. These groups are as follows: the aircraft owned by air carrier; aircraft obtained by financial leasing (from which the author separated out the subgroups of “young” aircraft, the aircraft with life span lower than 12 years, and the aircraft with life span more than 12 years); the aircraft in back leasing and operational leasing.

The owned aircraft retirement was determined according to the expected life span, or maximum permissible flying hours and endurance cycles from the commencement of operation.

The retirement of an aircraft being in financial leasing or leaseback can be forecasted only by life the span and total operating time.

Meanwhile the economic mechanism of the transition of the second-hand aircraft from the big companies to regional Russian companies is not developed.

The article presents some results covering the general situation in passenger aircraft fleet in the branch at large, and more detailed on Aeroflot Russian Airlines.

Keywords:

database, aircraft serial and side numbers, leasing and sale transactions, events, operational leasing, financial leasing and leaseback, aircraft owners, orders, deliveries, retirement trends

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