Trend factor models for forecasting of gross regional product (for regions of the Central Federal District as an example)

Аuthors

Nizhegorodtsev R. M.^1*, Petukhov N. A.^2**

1. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia
2. Podolsk Institute of Economics,

*e-mail: bell44@rambler.ru
**e-mail: MTEK-01@mai.ru

Abstract

Trend regression models to forecast a gross regional product (GRP) are developed and applied in the article. The models allow us to take into account such factors as capital, labor, information expressed in their quantified form. The models allow us also to evaluate a contribution of information production into economic growth. Results obtained by means of the trend regression models are capable to serve as a reliable basis for clusterization of the Russian regions. The models have been tested for regions of the Central Federal District as an example. The relative error for the GRP forecast does not exceed 10% as a rule.

Keywords:

gross regional product; trend regressive models; economic growth; forecasting